The Effects of Analyst‐Country Institutions on Biased Research: Evidence from Target Prices

Prior research demonstrates that a strong institutional infrastructure in a country moderates self‐serving behavior of market participants. Cross‐country economic activities have increased significantly, presenting a research opportunity to examine the relative influence of local versus foreign institutional infrastructure on individual market participants. We utilize variation in analyst‐country location relative to covered firm location to examine institutional determinants of optimism in analyst research. Focusing on target prices, where persistent optimism is well documented, we find that analysts domiciled in countries with stronger institutional infrastructures exhibit significantly attenuated target price optimism and more value‐relevant target prices. Our results demonstrate the importance of domestic country‐level institutional factors in moderating self‐serving behavior of market participants engaged in cross‐country activities.     

期望绩效反馈对企业社会责任行为的影响——基于利益相关者视角

本文以中国A股上市公司为研究样本，对期望绩效反馈和企业社会责任之间的关系进行理论探讨和实证检验，并进一步考察媒体报道和分析师关注度的交互作用。研究结果表明：当企业未实现组织期望绩效时，实际绩效低于组织期望绩效程度越大，企业社会责任履行程度越低；当企业已达到组织期望绩效时，实际绩效高于组织期望绩效程度越大，企业社会责任履行程度也越低；媒体报道与分析师关注度能有效地降低管理者与利益相关者之间信息不对称性，当企业已达到组织期望绩效时，媒体报道弱化了绩效差距和企业社会责任之间的关系；当未实现组织期望绩效时，分析师关注度正向影响绩效差距和企业社会责任之间的关系。     

Local predictive ability of analyst recommendations

This article shows that locally aggregated analyst recommendations at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA‐) or state‐level predict future locally aggregated excess returns. The results hold even after controlling for macroeconomic variables, industry and market returns, as well as investor sentiment. We also show that the local predictive ability of analyst recommendations is stronger for geographically concentrated firms. Additional analysis at the state‐level for the geographically concentrated firms reveals that locally aggregated analyst recommendations predict future local economic fundamentals. Overall, our findings suggest that analyst recommendations contain information at the MSA‐ and state‐level, and that local information content is richer for geographically concentrated firms.     

Finding diamonds in the rough: Analysts’ selective following of loss‐reporting firms

Investors face greater difficulty valuing loss‐reporting than profit‐reporting firms: losses may be due to very different reasons (e.g., poor operating performance or investments in intangibles, and financial accounting information is of more limited use for valuing loss‐making firms than profit‐making firms. Because of increased uncertainty about loss firms’ future financial and business viability, we hypothesize that financial analysts will be more selective when choosing to follow loss firms than profit firms, with the result that “abnormal” analyst following will be more informative to investors regarding the future performance of loss firms than profit firms. Consistent with this prediction, we find that abnormal analyst coverage is useful for predicting firms’ future prospects, and is more strongly associated with future performance (stock returns and ROA) for loss firms than for profit firms. The market, however, does not seem to use this useful information when pricing loss firms: for loss firms a portfolio investment strategy based upon abnormal analyst following can generate positive excess returns over 1‐ to 3‐year holding periods. These results are stronger for persistent‐loss firms than for occasional‐loss firms. We conclude that abnormal analyst following contains useful information about firms’ future prospects, and even more so for loss firms than for profit firms.     

关于企业工业增加值计算的探讨

文章论述了工业企业计算工业增加值的重要意义,介绍工业增加值的含义、计算方法,以及应遵循的原则。并且,结合南宁五菱桂花车辆有限公司在计算工业增加值工作中遇到的问题,阐述笔者在实际工作中的几点体会。     

从随礼看农民对社会保障的需求——以辽宁省开原市S村随礼现状的博弈分析为例

随礼本是一种婚姻礼俗,如今却蔓延到人们生活的诸多方面,甚至已经给社会,尤其是乡村社会造成了不可低估的影响。本文以辽宁省开原市某村庄为例,从博弈论的角度,微观的分析了随礼风的盛行原因。本文认为,正是乡村小社会的监督作用维持了人情博弈持续进行。并分析得出随礼风愈演愈烈的根源就在于农民抵抗风险能力的薄弱,最后引申出结论：农民实质上需要的是强有力的社会保障体系。     

Yes,The Value Line Enigma Is Still Alive: Evidence from Online Timeliness Rank Changes

Beginning June 9, 2005, Value Line started announcing its Timeliness changes online at 10:00 a.m. on Thursday, one day earlier than Friday noon's post‐delivery. We confirm that the Value Line effect still exists but shifts to Thursday in the Internet era. Unlike previous findings, the next‐day abnormal return after the announcement has disappeared, suggesting that the market efficiently priced the change. We find that a portfolio upgraded from rank 5 to 4 gains the highest cumulative abnormal return of 9.07% over a 50‐day window. Finally, we find that the post‐earnings announcement drift does not explain the Value Line enigma.     

Compliance with IFRS disclosure requirements and individual analysts’ forecast errors

We investigate the relationship between analysts’ earnings forecast errors and firm compliance with the disclosure requirements of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Using a comprehensive disclosure index of selected IFRS for which previous research has indicated significant noncompliance, we develop an unweighted and an innovative weighted measure of IFRS disclosure compliance. We document that forecast error is negatively related to IFRS compliance, and that the magnitude of this effect is larger when controlling for analyst fixed effects. Our findings suggest that compliance with the disclosure requirements of IFRS reduces information asymmetry and enhances the ability of financial analysts to provide more accurate forecasts. Our findings also support the viewpoint that the extent of compliance with accounting standards is as important as the standards themselves. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications.     

Isolating the Information Content of Equity Analysts' Recommendation Changes,Post Reg FD

We investigate the information content of equity analysts' recommendation changes subsequent to the passage of Regulation Fair Disclosure. We find that analyst upgrades (downgrades) are associated with positive (negative) abnormal returns. Overall, stock prices tend to react significantly more strongly to recommendation changes accompanied by news events than to those that are not. Even so, returns around recommendation changes not accompanied by news are significantly different from zero. This result holds after controlling for firm‐specific variables and the incidence of multiple simultaneous recommendation changes. We conclude that analyst recommendation changes, in and of themselves, are informative.     

Tests of Market Reaction and Analysts' Forecast Revisions to the Disclosure of Improved Management Earnings Expectations: A Case of Concurrent Bad News Management Earnings Forecasts

This paper tests whether a negative stock market reaction, associated with a management forecast of near term bad earnings, is lessened by a concurrent management forecast of improved longer term earnings expectations. Stock market reactions depend on the creditability of management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In this analysis, the authors examined market reactions around the time of management forecasts of bad earnings, with and without longer-term management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The results show that the stock market reaction is significantly less negative when management forecasts of bad earnings are followed by management forecasts of improved long run earnings expectations than when management forecasts of bad earnings are not accompanied by management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In addition, this paper examines financial analysts' reactions to management bad earnings forecasts and management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The findings show that analysts react less negatively to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations than to management forecasts of bad earnings. An analysis of a sub-sample of observations shows that analysts consider management forecasts of improved earnings expectations to imply improved expected future performance, thus conveying that analysts give credence to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. However, results show that the stock market and analysts are unable to distinguish management forecasts of improved earnings expectations that come true from management forecasts of improved earning expectations that do not come true.